How platform shifts let startups win — Recently, I saw this video of a startup called Wisely, the Dollar Shave Club of South Korea. How did they find product market fit in an industry dominated by a monopoly, Gillette? The obvious but incomplete answer is that they had a great product experience at a cheap price point…

Be an investor, not a speculator — You may wonder how applicable my advice is, because I work as a VC, which means early access to information. Well let me tell you that behind the fancy VC veneer, I am a crypto degen. It is how I have made most of my actual money. …

This is a recap of my largest concentrated positions in my personal portfolio, and how they have performed I like having a concentrated portfolio. My biggest holdings through 2020 were Bitcoin, Baidu, Cross-Harbour Holdings, and Cinemark. Bitcoin By far my biggest position. I have been accumulating since 2017, buying at prices…

Opinions expressed are solely my own and do not express the views or opinions of my employer. We are seeing the altcoin boom again. Euphoria without a consideration for what expectations are priced in to the token price. Prices are currently driven by short-term considerations and momentum. At some point…

Opinions expressed are solely my own and do not express the views or opinions of my employer. I initially wrote the below in January 2020, with the aim of giving insight into how I thought about Maker DAO and its valuation. …

Using Python to prove a controversial brainteaser — I find the Monty Hall Problem one of the most fascinating brain teasers, because it seems deceivingly simple. When Marilyn Von Savant, the woman with the highest IQ, answered this brainteaser correctly in 1991, she was inundated with over 10,000 letters from academics and Ph.Ds …

Extremely undervalued sum-of-the-parts play with a large margin of safety, trading below net cash & investments — Foreword: Small-cap ($300M — $2B USD market cap) stocks provide immense opportunity to outperform the general index because bigger managers move to large-cap stocks where more capital can be put to work. This leaves many opportunities in the small and micro-cap space. …

Please keep in mind that everything below is based on limited publicly available information. Thesis: DuckDuckGo (“DDG”)(https://duckduckgo.com/) will reach a valuation of at least $1B despite Google’s dominance in search. It was last valued at $160M in late 2018. I predict at least a 5x gain, and up to 30x…

Summary: I will try to distill down monetary theory help you fundamentally understand how currency and Bitcoin is valued. I claim that: 1) Bitcoin has negligible intrinsic value without mainstream use as a transactional currency, 2) that despite this, Bitcoin can still hold value based on a different valuation model…